Psychological and Emotional attributes.
Checking our tendencies to revert to common psychological and emotional errors in decision making.
Fundamental attributes
Checking our tendencies to make decisions about relative price, rather than relative value.
- Value drivers
- Do I have fundamental value drivers (Wallet addresses, Developer activity etc...) that are signalling that this is a “good” price?
- Positive Momentum
- If following a price trend, do I have the signals that tell me that there is force behind the trend? (Volume, Derivatives markets etc)
- On Chain analysis
- Have I looked at on chain analytics that express a notion of a over or under valued market?
- Technical entry
- If using charts, does the technical set up confirm my decision to buy or sell?
Probabilistic attributes
Checking that the risk/reward profile of a decision is adequate.
- Expected value
- Is the expected value of this decision large enough? Have I thought about the expected value of this decision?
- Outcomes and probabilistic scenarios
- After this decision, what will be the position that I am in different scenarios of best or worst case (Bull, Bear, Base cases)
- [ ] Position of strength
- [ ] Position of weakness
- [ ] Neutral position
- Exit points and plan
- Do I have a planned exit in both positive (profit taking) and negative (stop loss) scenarios?